《经济学人》(2021-10-02 Leaders)如何重振英国股市

 

From Big Bang to a whimper从大爆炸到悄无声息

How to revive Britain’s stockmarket如何重振英国股市

London’s once high-flying bourse has spent the past decade tumbling back to earth曾经一飞冲天的伦敦交易所过去十年却一路走低

Oct 2nd 2021 |

ASK BRITONS what actually goes on in the City of London and you’ll be met with a blank stare. Trading the yen and the yuan, structuring derivatives and providing the world’s financial plumbing are all money-spinners, but they barely register in the public imagination. The exception is the stockmarket. Daily news bulletins report trading on the FTSE 100 index of leading London shares. Booms and busts are charted by its gyrations. The London Stock Exchange (LSE) is the stamping-ground of giant multinationals, where city-slickers and corporate fat-cats thrash out huge deals to buy and sell the worlds companies.

要是问英国人伦敦金融城里都在搞些什么名堂，他们只会一脸茫然地看着你。交易日元和人民币，结构化金融衍生产品，提供全球金融管道等都是赚钱的好方法，但以上这些都超出了公众的想象力。股市却是个例外。每日新闻简报都要报道富时100指数主要伦敦股票的交易情况。经济繁荣或萧条，都展示在股市的震荡走势图上。伦敦股票交易所（LSE）是跨国巨头的名利场，城市佬们、企业巨富们在此进行巨额交易，全球公司任其买卖。

Or at least it used to be. London’s high-flying stockmarket has spent the past decade tumbling back to earth. In 2006 the companies with shares listed in London were worth 10.4% of the global equity market. Today, that figure is 3.6%. London has lagged behind even the laggards: its share of Europe’s total market value has declined from 36% to 22% over the same period. The denizens of the LSE that are left look geriatric. Less than one-fiftieth of the FTSE 100’s value comes from tech companies, compared with almost 40% of the S&P 500 index of American firms. James Anderson of Baillie Gifford, one of the most successful global investors of the era, recently told the Financial Times that Britain has a 19th-century stockmarket. He is right.

至少以前情况是这样。伦敦股市盛极一时，却在过去十年中一路走低。2006年，在伦敦交易所上市的公司股票市值占全球股市的10.4%。如今却只占3.6%。伦交所甚至已落后于所谓“后进”的交易所，其占全欧总市值的份额同期从36%跌至22%。仍留在伦交所的公司都已是明日黄花。科技公司在富时100指数总价值中占比仅不到十五分之一，相比之下，标普500指数中美国科技公司占比要达到近40%。巴美列捷福（Baillie Gifford）是本时代最成功的全球投资公司之一，在其中供职的詹姆斯·安德森(James Anderson)最近接受《金融时报》采访时说，英国股市还处于19世纪。他说得一点儿没错。

One reason for Britain’s abysmal bourse is the underperformance of large British firms. Too many, from BP and GSK to HSBC and Tesco (average age 169), have dropped from the top tier of their industries owing to the chronic British disease of poor management. That has dragged down returns and made some firms vulnerable to takeovers. The entire asset-management industry, which has the job of supervising other firms, is badly run. Britain’s most valuable fund manager is now worth less than 10% of America’s largest. British pension schemes have spent years loading up on bonds and selling shares in a myopic quest to eliminate risk. They now have too little exposure to economic growth or wealth-creation.

伦交所表现惨淡，一个原因是大型英国企业业绩不佳。英国石油公司（BP）、葛兰素史克公司（GSK）和乐购公司（Tesco）等，平均年龄都要达到169岁，由于经营不善，已从各自产业的头部跌落下来，经营不善可谓所有英国公司的痼疾。这拉低了股市收益，也使一些公司易遭到收购。整个资产管理产业，本来的职责是监管其他公司经营，但自身却也面临经营不善的问题。英国身价最高的基金经理，还占不到美国最大基金经理所持价值的10%。数年来英国养老金计划买卖债券和股票所采取的态度都只为消除风险，缺乏远见。到现在他们对经济增长或价值创造所知甚少。

The City has also suffered as global firms with international capital-raising options have drifted off. London’s revival after the “Big Bang”—reforms in 1986 that deregulated trading—relied in part on the stock exchange becoming a venue for mobile global businesses. Recent weeks have seen Prudential, an insurance giant, choose a share offering in Hong Kong and BHP, one of the largest London-listed companies, announce plans to have its sole primary listing in Australia. London’s aspirations to be a hub for European businesses have been dealt a blow by Brexit.

随着能在全球范围内融资的跨国公司渐行渐远，伦敦金融城也受到了打击。“大爆炸”（即1986年放松交易管制改革）之后伦敦实现复兴，部分是依靠了证券交易所，彼时其正成为全球移动企业交易场所。近几周，保险业巨头保诚公司（Prudential）选择在香港上市；伦敦最大的上市公司之一必和必拓（BHP），宣布计划在澳大利亚主要上市。伦敦作为欧洲商业中心的吸引力，也因脱欧而遭受重创。

The City’s final weakness is a dearth of startups that choose to list in London. In 2005 London hosted one-fifth of the world’s initial public offerings (IPOs); today, it hosts one-twenty-fifth. A stock exchange that continually fails to attract exciting new firms will come to resemble a museum.

伦敦金融城的最后一个弱点是，选择在伦敦上市的初创企业数量不足。2005年，全球有五分之一的首次公开募股发生在伦敦；如今只有二十五分之一。若证交所始终不能吸引令人兴奋的新公司，它就与博物馆无异了。

It is reasonable to ask how much a puny stockmarket matters. For British savers, the answer is that it doesn’t much. They can, should and increasingly are ditching their home bias and building global portfolios. As owners of superior foreign shares they may feel nostalgia for their once-great home market, but that is all. For Britain’s economy, a shrivelled stockmarket matters more. It limits the options startup founders have to expand their firms. Britain’s universities, courts and venture-capital scene make it a good place to build a business regardless. But the country’s attractions are fading.

我们有理由发问，一个微不足道的证交所之重要性有几何。对于英国储户，答案是，没多重要。他们可以、应该，而且也逐步在放弃本土偏见，配置全球资产。对于那些持有优质外国股票者，他们会怀念那个曾经辉煌的本土股市，但也仅此而已。对于英国经济，股市萎靡不振，问题则要严重得多。初创企业创始人要扩张公司，可选手段会很有限。英国大学、法院和风险投资领域仍是创业的好去处。但英国的吸引力正在消退。

For the City, the stockmarket matters a great deal. London remains a dominant centre for trading debt, derivatives and currencies, but equities are a crucial part of any claim to be a global financial centre. Listed firms exert a pull on other financial activities, and on the accounting and legal services that cater to them. The financial-services industry is Britain’s most successful, contributing 6% of GDP and about a tenth of tax revenue.

对于伦敦金融城而言，股市至关重要。伦敦仍然是债务、衍生产品和货币的主要交易中心，但股票是衡量某地是否可称为全球金融中心的重要成分。上市公司会影响其他金融活动，以及为其服务的财会和法律业务等。金融服务是英国最成功的产业，占全国GDP的6%，并贡献了约十分之一的税收收入。

The worst reaction to stockmarket stagnation would be for the government to throw up defensive barriers. It must resist the temptation to veto takeovers or block delistings. An open market lets some firms leave, but it also encourages others to come. Far better to tackle the deeper causes of the malaise.

对于股市不振政府最糟的反应就是设立防御性壁垒。政府一定不能否决收购或阻止退市等。开放市场允许一些企业离开，同时也鼓励其他企业加入。更好的办法是如何解决造成这一弊病的深层原因。

A starting-point is Britain’s corporate-governance rules for listed firms. Twenty years ago they were envied around the world, but they have since mushroomed and created a class of 3,000-odd semi-engaged and often semi-retired non-executive board directors who are rarely at the cutting edge of their global industry and often think their job is to sell firms, not prod them to invest. This interest group is entrenched, but it has presided over poor results and needs to be culled. The imperative is less red tape and more directors who understand risk-taking, not virtue-signalling.

首先是英国的上市公司企业治理规则问题。二十年前这确令全球艳羡，但自那以后各种治理规则如雨后春笋般涌现，并形成了一个由3000多名半参与、往往半退休的非执行董事成员组成的阶层，他们鲜少站在全球产业最前沿，而且往往认为自己的工作就是出售企业，而非激励企业去投资。这一利益集团根深难撼，但它造成了恶劣的后果，需要被淘汰。要少一些官僚主义，多一些理解什么是风险承担，而非一味标榜美德的董事。

The stockmarket can also be made more attractive by letting dual-class shares join the LSE’s premium segment. These give some shares souped-up voting rights and are popular among founders wishing to retain control. They are permitted by every one of the City’s rivals. But Britain’s befuddled legacy fund managers oppose them at home even though they are willing to buy them abroad.

还可将双层股权纳入伦交所高端市场，使股市更有吸引力。这会使某些股权拥有更高的投票权，想要对公司保留控制权的创始人也会对此表示欢迎。伦敦的每个竞争对手都允许这种操作。但是英国的传统基金经理们却仍执迷不悟，尽管他们很愿意在国外购买这类股票，却反对在国内进行类似操作。

Reform of the asset-management industry is overdue. Actuarial rules create a perverse incentive for firms to hold debt and private assets, in which volatility is masked because they are valued infrequently. This bias should be removed. Britain’s 5,327 corporate pension schemes should be merged into a few big managers with the scale to invest more competently.

资产管理产业改革早就势在必行。精算规则会抑制企业负债和持有私有资产，但由于其不常得到评估，因此也就掩盖了资产波动。应祛除这一偏见。英国有5327个企业养老金计划，应将其合并入少数几个投资能力更高的大型管理公司。

Light the blue touchpaper一石激起千层浪

The good news is that a cohort of promising firms is emerging. In the past few years venture capital has flooded into Britain, which has 34 privately held startups worth over $1bn and has created more such unicorns than France, Germany and Sweden combined. Companies like Revolut, a fintech star, are reaching critical mass. As well as deregulating corporate governance and allowing dual-class shares, the government should move ahead swiftly to make it easier for startups to hire talented foreigners and let graduates of leading universities move to Britain without a job offer. The prize is a new generation of innovative firms listing in London. Time for another Big Bang. ■

好消息是一批有前途的公司正在兴起。过去几年风险投资涌入英国，有34家价值超过10亿美元的私人初创企业，其创造的独角兽公司数量比法国、德国和瑞典的总和还多。金融科技公司Revolut正达到企业临界值。除了放宽企业治理，允许双层股权之外，政府还应迅速采取行动，让初创公司更容易雇佣外国人才，让顶尖大学毕业生在无公司录用的情况下也能先移居英国。这么做的好处就是会有新一代创新公司在伦敦上市。是时候再来一次大爆炸了。