大摩预计长线投资者将强力推动资金流入中国债市

 

大摩与投资者就其2019年新兴市场固定收益展望报告进行讨论后发现，投资者对中国增长将保持稳定不那么有信心；虽然投资者大多还未就中国债券加入全球综合指数做好准备，但该行预计明年4月正式加入该指数后，长线投资者将成为强劲推动力促进资金流入中国债市。

图/摄图网

摩根士丹利过去两周与投资者对其2019年新兴市场固定收益展望报告进行讨论，发现许多投资者对前景持怀疑且很悲观的态度。主要的担忧在于全球增长前景以及新兴市场是否有能力经受住美国带头导致的全球增长放缓。由于美国和欧洲经济正在放缓，投资者将中国视为重大风险。虽然大摩认为，在刺激措施的支撑下，中国增长将保持稳定，但投资者并不是那么有信心，尤其是考虑到贸易谈判方面的风险。投资者还怀疑美元是否会因欧洲增长放缓而走低。

Weve spent the last two weeks discussing our year-ahead outlook with investors. The common doubt is whether EM can withstand a US-led global growth downturn. Many are sceptical and quite downbeat about the outlook. Chief among concerns is the global growth outlook and EMs ability to withstand a downturn. With the US and Europe slowing, investors see China as a significant risk. While Morgan Stanleys view is that Chinas growth will stabilise following ongoing stimulus efforts, investors are not so confident, particularly with the risks around trade negotiations. They also question whether USD can weaken amid slowing European growth.

整体来说，大摩发现投资者对其乐观的2019年新兴市场固定收益展望持怀疑态度。

Overall we found investors sceptical about our bullish outlook for EM fixed income in 2019.

此外，受操作问题、交易担忧和估值问题影响，投资者看来还未就中国债券加入全球综合指数(Global Aggregate Index)做准备。大摩预计，随着2019年4月开始加入，将有资金流入。

大摩表示，正如其在《新兴市场策略更新报告：空前资金流入中国债市》中讨论过的，目前为止，流入中国债市的资金一直由储备管理机构和海外银行主导。但长线投资者(real money investor)的身影还很少见，而且该行认为许多人还没准备好。这是因为：1）新债(最新发行的债券，on-the-run bonds)和旧债(已发行一段时间的新债，off-the-run bonds)的流动性状况仍有很大差异；2）指标债券一年变化四次，这让投资者、尤其是被动型基金很难追踪；3）离岸人民币对冲成本高昂，但以在岸人民币远期来对冲离岸人民币中国国债可能存在基差风险；4）投资者仍对离岸人民币估值和中国国债久期心存疑虑。鉴于以上担忧以及目前为止配额有限，大摩预计，2019年4月时长线投资者将代表着一股强劲的推动势力，促使资金流入中国债市。

Moreover, investors do not seem prepared for the entry of China into the Global Aggregate Index due to operational issues, trading concerns and valuations. We expect to see inflows after inclusion from April 2019.

As we discussed in EM Strategy Update: Unprecedented Inflows into the Chinese Bond Market, December 5, 2018, so far the inflows into the Chinese bond market have been dominated by reserve managers and overseas banks. However, real money investor involvement is very limited and our sense is that many are not prepared. This is because: i) There is still a huge difference in liquidity of on-the-run and off-the-run bonds; ii) The benchmark bond changes four times a year, which makes it hard for investors, especially passive funds, to track; iii) The hedging cost in CNH is punitive while hedging CNH CGBs with the onshore CNY forward could create basis risks; and iv) Investors are still concerned about the valuation in CNH or CGB durations. As a result of these concerns and limited allocations so far, we expect real money investors to represent a strong push factor in April 2019, prompting inflows into the Chinese bond market.

大摩认为，人民币名义有效汇率可能下跌，但债券收益率可能会下降，受资本账户状况影响。如果中国政府决定扩大财政赤字，长期债券收益率可能会在一段时间内承压，但该行认为宏观经济放缓最终应该会拖累收益率下滑。大摩还认为，为了支持民营企业融资，中国人民银行可能将使国债收益率在低位保持稳定。

CNY could weaken in NEER terms but bond yields could move lower given the sealed capital account, in our view. Should the government decide to expand its fiscal deficit, the back end could be under pressure for a while, but we believe that the macro slowdown should ultimately drag bond yields lower. In order to support private sector funding, the PBOC is likely to keep government bond yields low and stable, in our view.

推荐做多新加坡元兑离岸人民币

此外，大摩指出，如果美元指数持续疲软，人民币兑美元可能会走强，但人民币兑一篮子货币2019年应会走软，因货币贬值可能会提振出口和增长。从资本账户角度看人民币还是被高估，因错误和遗漏项规模依然很大。考虑到资本流入的重要性，人民币不太可能快速贬值。据大摩的《2019年全球汇率展望：10大外汇交易》报告，该行推荐做多新加坡元兑离岸人民币。

Dislike: CNY could strengthen against USD should DXY stay weak but CNY is likely to weaken in basket terms in 2019 as a weaker currency could support exports and growth. The currency is expensive from a capital account perspective as errors and omissions remain large. Rapid depreciation is unlikely, given the importance of capital inflows. In our 2019 Global FX Outlook: Top 10 FX Trades, we recommend long SGDCNH.

(The end）